Lucid Motors' Production Predictions
The rash of civil (mostly class action) and SEC actions against one of our favorite industry sub-segments (Electric and Autonomous Vehicles) has reached pandemic proportions. Why is it that the pioneer innovators and geniuses who brought this industry to life can't seem to talk about their efforts without resort to hyperbole, gross exaggeration, distortion, or outright lies? Optimism, enthusiasm, and naiveté and inexperience are certainly factors - but they don't account for some of what we are seeing! The latest addition to the list: When Lucid Motors CEO (Peter Rawlinson) was touting Lucid's upcoming merger with Churchill Capital IV* (CCIV) he told Forbes that Lucid intended to build and sell 6,000 Lucid Air Vehicles in 2021. Wowwwww said investors, and quickly pumped up CCIV's price (~$10.50) to somewhere just north or south of $58 (+470% in under 50 days). Then there is the truth - apparently about 5,420 of Lucid's planned 2021 Air Vehicles will actually be Air* -- Lucid's "revised" production figure for 2021 is 577 vehicles - a figure that was apparently known by Lucid management at the time Rawlinson made the announcement. But wait - there's more! The Lucid-Churchill merger also includes a Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) that permits institutional investors to purchase shares at lower prices than the same shares sell for in public markets. Not particularly unusual - but apparently not disclosed (or disclosed poorly) in the offering documents... That's a Great Big Bozo No-No. (Emphasis on the Bozo - disclosure is the leitmotif of any securities offer!) *1 Lucid Motors may merge with Churchill Capital IV (a Single Purpose Acquisition Company) in a merger yet to be completed. Lucid is not publicly traded. Churchill Capital IV trades as CCIV on the New York Stock Exchange. *2 "Air" - the EV industry's functional equivalent of the "vaporware" that was the basis for the Late-90's to 2000 Tech Bubble and its aftermath. Do we REALLY have to point out that nothing in this note is a recommendation to buy, sell, option, or exchange shares in any of the companies? Yeah - we do! Neither Cambyses Financial Advisors, Steven Roy Management nor any of their personnel or clients holds any interest in Lucid or Churchill Capital IV.